Comments on: Patrick Holford, MMR and What Passes for Hard Evidence

By: duck

duck — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 13:18:12 +0000

lol

By: Ben Goldacre Usually Gets The Science Wrong: Patrick Holford Speaks From His Own Reality « Holford Watch: Patrick Holford, nutritionism and bad science

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 09:50:09 +0000

[...] evidence” on this topic with Holford but it really does not stand up to any scrutiny: MMR and What Passes for Hard Evidence. Holford’s spirited defence of Andrew Wakefield reveals less about Wakefield’s work and [...]

By: Shinga

Shinga — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 18:02:22 +0000

Indeed, Claire. If you are going to cover this area in a book, I think that it would be relevant to provide an even-handed overview of the literature in this field, or even to give a summary of the literature and sense of which side has the most scientific support. In fact, you might do anything other than cite the references that he did and call them "hard evidence"...

No, Jon. I didn't read enough of the book, but, believe me, it is on the list. After I have finished with homocysteine and other running topics.

Regards - Shinga

By: Claire

Claire — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 16:05:32 +0000

I wonder what Mr. Holford makes of the following paper:

No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study

Authors: Honda, Hideo1; Shimizu, Yasuo1; Rutter, Michael2

Source: Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry and Allied Disciplines, Volume 46, Number 6, June 2005 , pp. 572-579(8)

Publisher: Blackwell Publishing

Abstract:
Background:

A causal relationship between the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine and occurrence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) has been claimed, based on an increase in ASD in the USA and the UK after introduction of the MMR vaccine. However, the possibility that this increase is coincidental has not been eliminated. The unique circumstances of a Japanese MMR vaccination program provide an opportunity for comparison of ASD incidence before and after termination of the program. Methods:

This study examined cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven for children born from 1988 to 1996 in Kohoku Ward (population approximately 300,000), Yokohama, Japan. ASD cases included all cases of pervasive developmental disorders according to ICD-10 guidelines. Results:

The MMR vaccination rate in the city of Yokohama declined significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1992, and not a single vaccination was administered in 1993 or thereafter. In contrast, cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven increased significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1996 and most notably rose dramatically beginning with the birth cohort of 1993. Conclusions:

The significance of this finding is that MMR vaccination is most unlikely to be a main cause of ASD, that it cannot explain the rise over time in the incidence of ASD, and that withdrawal of MMR in countries where it is still being used cannot be expected to lead to a reduction in the incidence of ASD.

By: Jon

Jon — Mon, 11 Jun 2007 15:13:36 +0000

thanks Shinga - v interesting post. Did you get a sense of what Holford's recommendations would be re. vaccination? Whereas publications like the Cochrane Review [PDF] make pretty explicit recommendations after analysing the evidence (in the case of the Cochrane review, they emphasise that the evidence does not support a link to autism, and that vaccination is important) I'm not entirely clear what Holford thinks parents ought to do...